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The devil may still be in the details, but polls are clear about one thing: Labor heading for a large, possibly very large, majority when the results come out on July 5. But what might this mean for general election turnout? Does a result that seems foregone mean that people might think their vote doesn’t matter?
On a winter day in December 2019, voter turnout was 67%. Slightly less than 2017, but significantly higher than the UK General Election low of 59.4% in 2001. With a supposedly uninspiring campaign, a clear signal for the winning party and high levels of voter distrust, some suggest that a summer’s day in 2024 may not tempt voters to the polls.
A clear and large lead in the polls for one party may mean that voters are less likely to vote, but it is not immediately clear who might benefit. Those who intend to vote Labor may feel they don’t need to. But it’s just as likely that those who previously voted Conservative will think there’s no point. Voters who have voted for one of the two major parties in the past may also feel able to vote for a smaller party, knowing that it is unlikely to change the outcome.
There are generally two types of non-voters. First there are the usual non-voters, many of whom are not on the electoral register to vote. The factors that influence this kind of abstention are often structural: people who habitually do not vote are less interested in politics, less likely to have any attachment or strong dislike for a political party. They are less likely to be home owners, less likely to have degree-level qualifications and are disproportionately drawn from lower socio-economic groups. There is also an age effect on turnout, with younger voters less likely to vote. This has become particularly important in British elections as age is increasingly associated with voting behaviour.
The other type – those who have voted in previous general elections but who may choose not to on July 4 – are harder to predict. These voters are more likely to be influenced by campaigning, polling and party competition in their district. And these factors change from election to election.
Sociologists do not try to understand the habitual non-voter; they are unlikely to be on sample panels or agree to take a telephone survey, and critically very unlikely to vote. Instead, pollsters try to make sure they only count people who will actually vote.
The way they do this varies, from relatively simple weighting to more complex modeling of the probability of voting. A common approach is to ask people how likely they are to vote and report only those who say they are very likely to go to the polling station. These measures have shown some unusual patterns over the past 18 months, which may hint at unusual turnout patterns in the future.
Those who have voted in previous elections are generally very likely to vote again. Ahead of the 2019 and 2017 elections, YouGov research showed that three-quarters of main party voters said they were absolutely certain they would vote again at the next election. But the latest figures show that less than two-thirds of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say so now, while for Labor and the Lib Dems this remains at a similar level to last election (78% and 72% respectively). .
This swing in the Conservative vote reflects unusually high indecision among these voters. Many of them, even at this late stage of the campaign, have not decided how they will vote. Although the party is doing its best to try to motivate former Conservative voters, stressing the need for an effective opposition and the dangers of a split vote with Reform UK, there is no sign that these messages are having any effect.
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Although the assumption is that a large lead in the polls may be a problem for the leading party to motivate its voters, in this election there is some reason to believe that previous Conservative voters may lead to changes in turnout patterns. With less than two weeks until Election Day, convincing past voters could be just as important to Conservatives such as their return from other countries.
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